Blue states would win economically if the red states succeeded in their battle to secede

Kari Lake, the newly-minted MAGA, Trump ass-kisser, and Republican candidate for Governor of Arizona, said the state should“fire the federal government”. And the base loved it because red state Republicans pine for the mythical Shangri-La of independence without considering the consequences of their bloody-mindedness.

Until now, the sanctity of ‘union’ was paramount in American political calculus. But it is time to acknowledge that America is no longer a functioning democracy. And division is the only cure for what ails us.

When the North won the war to eradicate slavery, it was good news for the slaves. But for America, despite satisfaction in the North, it ultimately proved not an optimal outcome. While the South fought to preserve slavery, the North fought to preserve the Union. And had the President been other than Abraham Lincoln, the sheer carnage of the Civil War might have convinced that man to come to a peaceful solution, including secession for the rebel states.

But Lincoln was firm in his belief that the North must wage war until the South was defeated and thoughts of secession buried — even if it meant that slavery would continue to exist in some form. While he was personally against slavery, he was Bismarkian in his embrace of realpolitik. As he told Horace “Go West young man” Greeley “ in 1862,

“If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone, I would also do that.” 

Hardly the language of emancipation. Even the 1863 Emancipation Proclamation only freed slaves in those states in rebellion against the United States. And it was not until the states ratified the 13th amendment on December 6th, 1865 — 8 months after Lincoln’s assassination — that slavery was finally legally ended in America.

The South never got over their defeat. In the ensuing years, the mythic causis belli of “state’s rights” replaced “preserving slavery” to become orthodoxy conservative philosophy. And simplistic conservative thinkers today dream of realizing the 161-year-old Confederate goal of secession. Today liberals should agree with the neo-secessionists that division is the only long-term political solution for the US.

I am tired of Wyoming (pop 581,000) having the same Senate Representation as California (pop. 39,600,000). If you factor in the number of Representatives (CA 53, WY 1), 194,000 Wyomingites have the same Electoral College influence as 720,000 Californians. Why should one group of Americans have c.4x as much power in selecting a President as another?

The Senate is equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. However, the 50 Democratic Senators represent 38.7 million more Americans than the 50 Republican Senators. If, in November, the Democrats were to flip GOP Senate seats in FL, PA, OH, and WI — while holding all of theirs (granted an unlikely proposition) — that margin would extend to 91.3 million. And they still wouldn’t be able to defeat a filibuster.

The red states have used this absurd electoral advantage to be victorious in two out of their last three successful Presidential campaigns despite capturing only a minority of the popular vote. And one of these popular vote-losing campaigns allowed Trump to nominate one-third of the current Supreme Court. Nominations that in turn, were approved by a Senate representing a minority of Americans.

Additionally, the red states are notorious deadbeats who rely on the federal government for much of their state funding. While at the same time, huge federal expenditures on things like military bases and roads buoy their economies. The numbers are indisputable. Of the 10 states most dependent on the federal government, 8 are red states. Of the 10 states least dependent on the federal government, 8 are blue states.

Conservatives boast of the power of the unregulated free market. They market themselves as business-friendly states. But they mean they are business owner friendly, while workers can feck themselves. I challenge a conservative to point to any policy, backed by actual evidence, that has improved the economic circumstance of the regular individual. (NB. While the GOP sells tax cuts as a boon to all, they overwhelmingly benefit the rich and have led to vast wealth inequality.)

By every statistical measure, the citizens of red states have worse health, income, addiction, criminal and educational outcomes than those of blue states. Liberals should not have to subsidize this second-rate system.

And finally, when the red states secede, they will have to take their share of the national debt with them. Then they can own the budget-busting insanity of 40 years of tax cuts for the wealthy and the Fortune 500.

Geographically, the division may cause some headaches. But based on the 2020 election map, I suggest three new countries:

• Atlantilakia would comprise the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic states, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
• Pacifica would include the West Coast, Hawaii, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado.
• Centralia would comprise the South-East, Appalachia, the Plain and North Mountain states, plus Utah and Alaska

After ten years, we could see which of these new countries were prospering. And answer whether wealth-concentrating plutocracy or a liberal economic model produces a more robust GDP.

Despite being underwritten by blue state taxpayers, the red states would start with a handicap. Of the 25 states with per capita GDP above the US median, 16 are blue states. Of the 25 states below the median, 17 are red states.

And that difference is nothing new. Just before the advent of the Civil War, the North’s economy dwarfed that of the South. By 1860, 90 percent of the nation's manufacturing output came from northern states — which produced 17 times more cotton and woolen textiles than the South, 30 times more leather goods, 20 times more pig iron, and 32 times more firearms.

The good old boys talk a good game. But they are all hat and no cattle. Let them figure out how to pay their own way. And they will even be able to build that border wall Mexico has yet to pay for.

Note: The original title of this diary was “Liberals should pray that red states succeed in their battle to secede.” I changed it to better reflect the content.