In the recent past, conventional wisdom has held that a right-wing revolt in this country was unlikely. The feedback I have heard most often is that either the government response would be swift and decisive, or that the right-wingers were cowardly weekend warriors who would never attempt a serious revolution and certainly wouldn’t go very far if they did try anything.
The former has been proven tragically wrong; the response was neither swift nor decisive and the financial and social cost of their reluctance to act has been devastating to the community and to the integrity of the sensitive ecosystem of Malheur.
It remains to be seen if the latter proves false or not. This is, after all, a developing story.
What we can say for certain is that the road blocks into the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge represent a serious escalation. I think that’s self-evident. Any doubt should be erased by the words of the militants themselves, who Jen Hayden pointed out had openly stated were willing to die for their cause and are declaring this the start of a “second American revolution. Whether that’s all talk or not remains to be seen; however, I should note that my father- a retired Air Force NCO with an impeccable record- once told me when I was young that if someone with a gun says they’re willing to kill or be killed, that you should take them at their word.
What might follow if we take their word for it, then? What could we reasonably extrapolate might come of a less-than-ideal outcome.
If this ends in a shootout between law enforcement and the militants, there might be simmering resentment but it would be too soon to declare that there would be repeats of the same; we cannot predict what the psychological impact of such an event would be. It has been 24 years since Waco and the event is not fresh in most people’s memory; fresh images of bloodied corpses might cause trigger-happy militants to think twice or it might incite them to act.
A shootout restricted to the refuge itself may not be the worst case scenario, however. Remember that this standoff has attracted nationwide attention, and that before their arrest Ammon Bundy and his followers traveled far and wide to drum up support and have been recruiting help from the Internet. The development of a siege could spark an escalation to the space outside of the road blocks.
Consider first of all that not all of the militants were actually in the wildlife refuge itself. An unknown number have been occupying the town and the roads into the town itself can’t be blocked without serious consequences for the innocent residents of the town. What we could potentially see is Burns becoming a staging area for an assault on law enforcement from the rear by reinforcements already in the town and fresh recruits rolling in from out of state; I can only hope federal agents are prepared for such a scenario.
Consider second that not every possible reinforcement might be yokels with more guns than IQ points. The Oath Keepers (who have sworn that another Waco will trigger a civil war) include among their members current and former law enforcement and military. This means not only will they have more sophisticated training, but they could potentially have access to police and national guard arsenals.
Consider too that Ammon Bundy had appealed to the movement of “constitutional sheriffs” that has arisen in this country, and that the militants have an open endorsement from one of them. If this situation were to escalate, what would stop a “constitutional sheriff” from deploying the armored vehicles and tactical weaponry that many jurisdictions now have access to? Police militarization and the political factioning of police forces against each other could very easily lead to a nightmare scenario of paramilitary police units fighting each other and aiding militants. Members of the Constitutional Sheriffs and Peace Officer’s Association have darkly hinted that civil issues like same-sex marriage might be enough to trigger bloodshed; an armed standoff between political allies and the federal government might be more than enough motivation.
If it comes down to police against police, then it might be inevitable that the military will get involved and at that point, I think it’s a fair assessment that things will get extremely hairy.
I don’t have a crystal ball; I don’t know how this will play out. What I do know is that we can’t be complacent with the idea that cooler heads will prevail. We have what can only be described as a determinedly antagonistic group that by all appearances wants to start a revolution, and they have allies with military training and weapons across the country. Calling this “volatile” would be a tremendous understatement.
EDIT: The Oregonian is reporting that only ten or so militants remained, and many were scattered or had already surrendered. That fizzled fast. Perhaps we have an answer to the question of whether or not they will back down when the gloves are finally off, and thankfully the answer is yes, they’re capitulating. It seems that the measured approach may be vindicated after all, though a serious assessment of the impact of more than two weeks of chaos on the community needs to be part of that discussion.