I'm not going to lie, the weirdness of the anonymous NYT piece kept me up for a while last night, trying to figure it out. So I tried to figure out the questions that made this so weird to me and I came up with two: Why did this anonymous official reach out to do this and why now, and why the NYT? And while many of you may have figured it out already — it finally dawned on me: elections.
According to RCP aggregate polling data, the generic Democrat for Congress is ahead, 48%-39%, over the generic Republican. That 39% is pretty consistent with the number most often associated with Trump's base. While I know the 'generic candidate' polling data isn't necessarily dispositive of anything, a 9% spread, not to mention the total of 13% in the undecided column, must feel pretty serious to Republicans who want to win in November.
That 39% number is pretty glaring to me; it's not often the generic number is that low. The question is often, "Are you more likely to vote for a Democrat or a Republican this fall?" or something to that effect, and it's pretty hard to get a number below 45% when you ask it like that. Moreover, the spread between, "do you lean Republican or Democrat," in terms of party affiliation is pretty wide right now - 50%-42% for the Ds. And the gap between registered voters is growing wider as well, with Ds leading 33%-26%. And here's the kicker - those numbers have only gotten wider since Trump became President - for example, leaning party ID has moved from 48%-44%, which, statistically speaking, is a pretty big leap.
So I think the Republican establishment - meant as something separate from Trump Republicans - is scared. They are scared of losing power. They are scared that Trump is dragging them down. The op-ed, therefore, isn't a confession, or a cry for help, and no one has reached a breaking point.
No, this piece is meant as it's written: as words of reassurance, but to Republicans everywhere who can't stand Trump and his sycophants in the West Wing and in Congress. It is an effort to get reasonable people in the Republican Party, those independents with Republican leanings, etc., a reason to come home this fall, and vote for their party.
This op-ed, like everything done by the established leadership of the Republican Party in recent years - and I'm looking at you, Mitch McConnell - is to keep power so that they can continue to advance their agenda. It is an effort at reassuring those who are Republicans but are disgusted by Trump - and there are a lot of them - that things are still o.k. and the Republican agenda is going forward, even if we're in "Crazytown." Mitch McConnell is many things, most of them odious, but he is a shrewd politician. Yes, obviously, I think he had a hand in this, just as I think he's had a hand in the 'shadow government' the author of the piece describes. McConnell wants to win and wants power. Period.
Finally, why the New York Times? First, it's mainstream. It's what many reasonable - or those leaning - Republicans are more likely read than the wackjobs at Fox or whatever. Next, it seems more credible given that it's not in the WSJ or further-right sources. Third, practically speaking, since it is also, admittedly, in some ways a takedown of the administration, it's likely that the right wouldn't publish it. Finally this way, the piece gets more press, across the political spectrum, especially since it's in one of Trump's go to foils.
From another perspective, it's also "I told you so!" red meat for those on the left who hate Trump. Perhaps a big enough distraction where some would think that they don't need to go vote, because, y'know, "Why bother? Those morons are so busy fighting within their own party, there's no way we can lose."
For years, the Republican Party establishment has been remarkably disciplined in getting its members to vote. Look at the composition of state and local legislatures if you don’t believe it. Trump, however, is a real test of that because it's just impossible to not see that he's bad for America, at least for those closer to the middle in the party. This op-ed is to help bring them home, and the New York Times, in an effort to get a sexy-as-hell story - which it is, no doubt, and I don’t blame them one bit for publishing it - has provided the perfect mouthpiece.
Final thoughts — If you didn’t already think the upcoming elections were the most significant in a long time, you have to now. The Republicans are willing to admit or pretend or whatever that their party is divided to win, and that their leader is a mess, which seems a pretty desperate play. That’s saying something.
https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/