Virtually since he became President of Russia in 2000, the thing Vladimir Putin has feared most has been a “color revolution.” Rightly or wrongly, Putin blames the United States for the color revolutions that swept away the pro-Russian governments of various former Soviet states on his watch. A color revolution features millions of people pouring into the streets of the affected nation and rendering it ungovernable until the government steps down and a new Constitution is written. Color revolutions are generally non-violent as the army of the affected nation refuses to fire on the people.
Putin has finally found the solution to his problem: if the United States can cause a color revolution in a former Soviet republic (and potentially in Russia itself), Russia can also cause a color revolution in its biggest adversary. Someone in the SVR with a very deep understanding of American politics came up with this idea and probably persuaded Donald Trump to run for President last year.
Here in the United States today, Donald Trump, having given up hope of winning the 2016 election, is trying to make his supporters mad as hell about the fact he is losing, and make them believe that he didn’t legitimately lose and that revolution is a suitable response to the “theft” of the election. Violence is beginning to break out already, even before the polls open in most states. I don’t believe for a second that actual Democrats were behind the firebombing of the North Carolina GOP campaign office. I don’t believe it was done by Republicans without some strong connection to Russia.
Had Clinton been such a weak candidate that Trump was able to beat her, Putin would still have won a great victory, with the world’s most powerful nation so firmly allied to him that he wouldn’t even need China anymore. But Putin will win a bigger victory if a color revolution happens in the United States. Obama had a hard time with 40% of the political class determined not to acknowledge his legitimacy, but this time we are talking about 40% of the whole electorate of the United States who will be utterly determined that Hillary Clinton not become President. I generally consider non-members of the electorate to not be a factor in American politics, but even they may not be able to remain apolitical after this next election.
I have not always been a fan of President Obama. His continuation of the Iraq War and escalation of the Afghan War after winning the Nobel Peace Prize reflect the fact that a nonviolent revolution in the United States is impossible because the people with power believe in violence in a big way. The biggest win for Putin is if Americans by the thousands kill each other or are killed by the army when they rise up violently. In the latter scenario, the volunteer military would be unsustainable as very few working-class white people would be willing to join anymore.
The only hope is for Pence and other prominent Republicans to recognize what’s going on (perhaps with the help of a classified briefing from Homeland Security and the President) and denounce the Russian plot. Pence in particular does not have far to go before he realizes that Trump does not have the nation’s best interests at heart. Perhaps the Republican Convention should reconvene to substitute a different nominee. Even if Democrats then lose the election, the country as a whole would be a lot better off and the life and health of thousands would be preserved. Do the right thing, Mike.